Business Field

Hog market data for the first week of January 2023

Sample distribution description:

The first part of the market data statistical sample is Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Anhui, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, Ningxia, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan 24 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions and other more than 600 large, medium and small pig farm households;

 

The second part of the market statistics sample is more than 5 large, medium and small pig farms in North China, including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi.

One

National piglets, pigs, pork, corn,

Soybean meal, pig grain price comparison market data

 

1. National average piglet price

In the first week of January, the national average piglet price was 1.1 yuan/kg, down 38.30% from last week (40.36 yuan/kg).

Source: China Pig Breeding Information Network

Source: China Pig Breeding Information Network

During the statistical period, the national piglet price generally showed a downward trend, and there were fluctuations in the later period.

2. National average pig price

In the first week of January, the national average pig price was 1.1 yuan/kg, down 15.56% from last week (18.41 yuan/kg).

Source: China Pig Breeding Information Network

Source: China Pig Breeding Information Network

During the statistical period, the national pig price generally showed a downward trend, and fluctuated sharply in the later period.

3. The average price of pork in the country

In the first week of January, the national average price of pork was 1.1 yuan/kg, down 24.56% from last week (27.17 yuan/kg).

Source: China Pig Breeding Information Network

Source: China Pig Breeding Information Network

During the statistical period, the national pork price showed a continuous downward trend.

4. National average corn price

In the first week of January, the national average corn price was 1.1 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week (2.96 yuan/kg).

Source: China Pig Breeding Information Network

数据来源：中国种猪信息网

统计期间，全国玉米价格呈现小幅波动走势。

5、全国豆粕平均价格

1月第1周，全国豆粕平均价格5.08元/kg，较上周（5.14元/kg）下降1.17%。

Source: China Pig Breeding Information Network

Source: China Pig Breeding Information Network

During the statistical period, the national soybean meal price was relatively stable in the early stage, and continued to decline in the middle and late stages.

6. National average pig grain price comparison

In the first week of January, the national pig grain ratio was 1.1:5, down 26.1% from last week (6.22:1).

Source: China Pig Breeding Information Network

Two

Purebred sows, purebred boars in North China,

Binary sow market data

1. The price of 50kg purebred sows in North China

During the statistical period, the price of 50kg purebred sow in Beijing was relatively stable, Tianjin changed slightly, Hebei Province was relatively stable, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region changed slightly, and Shanxi Province continued to decrease slightly.

2. The price of 50kg purebred boar in North China

During the statistical period, the price of 50kg purebred boar in Beijing was relatively stable, Tianjin was relatively stable, Hebei Province was relatively stable, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was relatively stable, and Shanxi Province changed slightly.

 

3. The price of 50kg binary sow in North China

During the statistical period, the price of 50kg purebred boar in Beijing was stable after a slight increase, Tianjin was relatively stable, Hebei Province was stable after a slight increase, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was relatively stable, and Shanxi Province was relatively stable.

Three

Market analysis and judgment

1. Quotes

1.1 Analysis

In January 2023, pig prices in many provinces across the country showed a trend of decline in most of the way. East China and Central China are the "hardest hit areas" of decline, while Northeast, Northwest, Yunguichuan and other regions have a trend of stopping the decline and rising, on the whole, due to the retail investors in the northern region to show a strong price and sell sentiment, the decline in pig prices has narrowed. The overall domestic trend is still showing a large-scale downward trend, and the main influencing factor is still the matching of supply and demand.

1.2 Judgment

With the end of the first wave of new crown infection, residents' home and dining consumption will continue to recover and gradually enter the seasonal peak season. Therefore, from a theoretical point of view, the probability of bullish price of large pigs slaughtered in January is high, the overall bottom of pig prices after the Spring Festival is weak and volatile, and the price of slaughtered large pigs from late March to June is expected to have a strong trend process due to the low slaughter volume.

2. Raw materials

2.1 Analysis

Domestic corn spot prices are basically stable, with a slight local strength. Grassroots growers in the northeast production area have a strong sentiment to support prices, the arrival volume of processing enterprises has declined, and some deep processing enterprises with warehouse construction needs have raised their quotations, but most enterprises are still cautious in purchasing. The Spring Festival in the Huanghuai production area of North China is approaching, the remaining trading time is limited, the market purchase and sales activities are flat, the circulation of new grain at the grassroots level is general, the purchase volume of traders is not large, and the purchase price of deep processing enterprises is on demand, affected by the sluggish volume, the purchase price of some enterprises began to rise.

The pace of domestic imported soybean arrivals continues to disrupt market supply, and after the operating rate of domestic oil mills climbed to the high level of the same period of the previous year, port soybean consumption accelerated, and the speed of inventory repair was very slow, and there was little pressure on prices. At the same time, oil mill soybean meal stocks have rebounded, but compared with the sharp increase in oil mill operating rates, the growth rate of soybean meal stocks is relatively slow, and oil mill soybean meal stocks are still far lower than the same period of previous years.

2.2 Judgment

The Spring Festival is getting closer and closer, and the first half of January is the last moment to stock up before the Spring Festival. Due to the decline in pig prices, the demand for terminal stocking is less than expected, and the support effect on corn prices is weakened. However, the enthusiasm of supply-side traders and growers to sell grain before the holiday is moderately high. It is predicted that during the first half of January, the price of corn in the main producing areas will continue to be weak, and there is still a short-term moderate recovery opportunity for corn prices in local areas, but it will not change the overall weak situation of the national price trend.

Before the Spring Festival, soybean meal in the market is expected to show a trend of both supply and demand, under the supply and demand game, soybean meal inventory will increase slightly, but on the one hand, after the demand for soybean meal is improved, the marginal growth rate of inventory may slow down, on the other hand, compared with the previous two years The current inventory is still at a low level, soybean meal prices are expected to continue a strong trend under the support of "near worries".